tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50398099992661244982024-02-20T19:51:37.723+00:00Clube de Relações InternacionaisClube de reflexão sobre temas das Relações Internacionais.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-1375601404108435062009-02-25T23:50:00.003+00:002009-02-25T23:59:25.038+00:00CriseA Crise continua a fazer vítimas que esperamos não sejam mortais. Muita coisa se irá passar por maus motivos e piores resultados. O proteccionismo anda a misturar-se com o patriotismo e ainda acaba em nacionalismo, ou seja guerra.<br />Esperemos que a reunião G20 em Abril nos traga melhores ventos.<br />Obama continua a ser um líder exemplar para o Mundo. Se as coisas correrem bem por lá, será melhor para todos.<br />De resto estão por acontecer boas surpresas na área do conhecimento e isso irá fazer toda a diferença.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-21901658398274885992009-01-24T23:03:00.002+00:002009-01-24T23:07:16.497+00:00Euro pode acabar para algunsCrise afecta coesão dos 'Euro-países'<br /><br /><a href="http://www.welt.de/english-news/article3065310/The-Eurozone-stands-before-its-ultimate-test.html">http://www.welt.de/english-news/article3065310/The-Eurozone-stands-before-its-ultimate-test.html</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-15111147685611884422009-01-24T22:40:00.003+00:002009-01-24T22:55:43.324+00:00Novo Ponto de SituaçãoA Contracção económica continua a sentir-se por falta dos grandes e constantes ganhos financeiros das empresas. O dinheiro está por aí, mas a maioria tem medo de lhe mexer. Enquanto o medo não passar, provavelmente através de um novo entusiasmo, nada feito.<br />Poucos se lembram que Alvin Tofler já descrevera esta Transformação da Riqueza. É disso que se trata. Para quem se sinta afectado por esta Crise e queira saber o que fazer, julgo que é um bom Guia. Tudo o resto, por enquanto, depende sobretudo de cada um de nós e do grupo mais próximo em que nos inserimos.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-48807859993352484552009-01-11T02:57:00.002+00:002009-01-11T03:02:04.065+00:00Gaza850 mortos e 3.300 feridos em Gaza. Do lado de Israel 13 mortos (3 civis) e 154 feridos.<br />na Europa, continua a ser a França a ter mais iniciativa. Sarkozy recebeu RAJI SOURANI, 55 anos, advogado e presidente do Centro palestiniano para os direitos do Homem.<br />O Vaticano já chama a Gaza, 'campo de concentração'.<br />Obama diz querer dialogar com Hamas, o que é inédito na política americana dos últimos anos. Temos de esperar por dia 20 para ver o que vai fazer. No entanto vai avisando o Irão. Este não quer ficar fragilizado com derrota do Hamas na região.<br />O ministro do Interior israelita, MEIR SHEETRIT afirmou que não lhe interessa nada o que dizem a UE e os EUA, o importante é defender os habitantes do sul de Israel.<br />O líder e o nº 2 políticos do Hamas, KHALED MECHAAL e MOUSSA ABOU MARZOUK, encontram-se habitualmente em Damasco, Síria. Estes têm recusado o envio de observadores internacionais para Gaza, por por pensarem ser um direito deles o resistir à ocupação de Israel.<br />A UNRWA, Agência das Nações Unidas para os refugiados palestinos, com sede em Amman, na Jordânia, e representações espalhadas pela região do conflito, está à espera de ter condições para voltar rápidamente a Gaza, após garantias do Ministro da Defesa israelita de que não atacará o pessoal e o material desta Agência.<br />Os últimos folhetos lançados por Israel sobre Gaza diziam:<br />'Israel vai intensificar as suas operações contra os túneis, os depósitosde armas e os terroristas em toda a Faixa de Gaza. Para vossa segurança e de vossas famílias pedimos que não se aproximem de terroristas, dos depósitos e das armas'<br /><br />Aquestão principal está nos Túneis de passagem de Gaza para o Egipto. São cerca de mil, através dos quais se faz contrabando de tudo, incluindo as armas com que o Hamas atinge Israel.<br />Os túneis vão dar ao interior de casas ou ao meio deterrenos cultivados, de um lado e de outro da fronteira.<br />Para além do Hamas os reis dos túneis são as grandes famílias de RAFAH (El-Sha'er, Qishtah, Barhoum).<br />O Hamas fará entre 6 a 8 milhões de dólares/ano através destes túneis, que também alimentam a economia de Gaza e permitem ultrapassar o bloqueio israelita, bem como entrar e sair debaixo de ataques.<br />Do lado do Egipto são sobretudo Beduínos que estão encarregues de guardar as entradas. Os polícias receberão 50 a 80 dólares/mês para fecharem os olhos.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-29799615654966634132008-12-15T23:34:00.002+00:002008-12-16T00:27:38.479+00:00Novo Ponto de SituaçãoIraque: Botas atiradas a Bush durante conferência de imprensa dá ares da dimensão da Guerra. Uma questão de cultura que dá um significado grande ao gesto. A morte é outra: é simbólica. A evolução Civilizacional é outra. Até Obama já fala em retirada só em 2012.<br />Taiwan: o lado bom da crise faz aproximar as Chinas através da inauguração de ligações directas. Já estiveram mais longe de se juntarem.<br />Grécia: os excluidos jovens têm maior entrega aos protestos contra a medievalização da vida. Poucos têm muito e muitos têm pouco. Nem dinheiro nem horizontes, logo o corpo e a alma ficam desamparados, logo é uma séria complicação.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-2659956362841164472008-11-28T18:23:00.003+00:002008-11-28T18:26:53.273+00:00Rússia avança pelo Sul da América<p>O El País escrevia hoje:<br /></p><p>El presidente ruso, Dmitri Medvédev, se ha reunido hoy con el ex presidente cubano Fidel Castro, en la última etapa de su viaje por Latinoamérica, que ha aprovechado para reforzar sus lazos económicos y políticos con varios líderes de la región, como el venezolano Hugo Chávez. Llegado ayer de Venezuela, Medvédev fue recibido por el hermano de Fidel y ahora presidente, Raúl Castro.</p> <!-- google_ad_section_end() --><!-- ***** Fin de Entradilla ***** --> <!-- ***** Info complementaria ***** --> <div class="info_complementa"> <!-- ***** Despiece ***** --> <div class="listado_despiece"> </div> <!-- ***** Despiece ***** --> <!-- ***** Hermanas ***** --></div><p>El viaje de Medvédev se interpreta como una forma de sacar músculo ante EE UU forjando alianzas políticas, energéticas y comerciales con líderes molestos para Washington y en su patio trasero, a apenas unas millas de territorio estadounidense. De hecho, uno de los puntos fuertes de la visita ha sido las maniobras militares conjuntas realizadas con el ejército venezolano. Varios buques de guerra rusos emprendieron hace algunos meses un viaje para cruzar todo el Atlántico y tomar parte en las maniobras en aguas del Caribe. Las relaciones entre Moscú y Washington pasan por uno de sus momentos más difíciles en años debido a la pretensión estadounidense de instalar parte de su escudo antimisiles en Polonia y la República Checa, a las puertas de la frontera rusa.</p><p>Por el momento, no se han hecho públicas imágenes del encuentro entre Medvédev y Fidel, que abandonó el poder en febrero, dejándolo en manos de su hermano, tras ser operado de una grave dolencia intestinal. Fidel, de 82 años, no ha aparecido en público desde que pasó por el quirófano, en julio de 2006, aunque se han podido ver algunas fotos con líderes que han visitado el país, sobre todo Chávez. En casi todas ellas ha aparecido en chándal y con un aspecto bastante desmejorado. No obstante, escribe regularmente artículos en la prensa oficial cubana.</p>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-37058397749149756902008-11-13T19:23:00.002+00:002008-11-13T19:34:18.661+00:00Mais Um PontoObama já é Presidente, os conflitos continuam, a Crise continua agora com a Alemanha em recessão, segundo notícia do Die Welt<br />http://www.welt.de/english-news/article2716541/Germany-enters-recession.html<br /><br />Sócrates ainda não mudou o Governo, mas precisa de o fazer para se poder adaptar ao Mundo. Senão qualquer oposição com ideias bem articuladas com a realidade esvazia-o. Será Ano Novo, Vida Nova?Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-91692485808154969282008-11-02T02:02:00.003+00:002008-11-02T03:01:13.134+00:00Marcar o PontoEnquanto aguardamos pelo Presidente Barack Hussein Obama (o nome deve desorientar muitos muçulmanos por esse mundo fora), pelo fim da Crise e o início do Séc. XXI (que começa agora, com uma mudança radical, única e irrepetível nos tempos mais próximos, senão estoira mesmo Tudo), alguns vão aproveitando para fazer pior: Guerra no Congo, piratas nas rotas marítimas, Líbia a comprar mais armas à Rússia, mosquitada a trazer Dengue à Madeira, Etc. (onde andam os defensores da Democracia?).<br />Por cá não se vê alternativa sólida ao tribuno Sócrates (continua a ser o melhor posicionado para o lugar de PM). Só precisa de ter um Governo mais adaptado ao retorno da política: as coisas mudaram e ele já deu sinais que percebeu. A alternativa que se adivinha forte vem Alegremente de dentro do seu partido.<br />E o PM fez o percurso certo para a altura: enquanto muitos sairam dos cargos políticos para os negócios, ele, que se saiba, fez os seus negócios antes do cargo político.<br />Wait and see....Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-24513398889245258772008-10-23T22:59:00.002+01:002008-11-28T18:27:52.239+00:00O que importa nos dias que correm<table class="Table100Per" summary="This table shows multiple content details" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td><h1><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Segundo resumo de notícias do Banco Mundial</span></span></h1><h1>G20 Leaders To Meet Over Financial Crisis On November 15</h1></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" class="pagetitleLineBlue"><img src="http://web.worldbank.org/shared/images/shim.gif" alt="" height="1" width="10" /></td></tr><tr><td><img src="http://web.worldbank.org/shared/images/shim.gif" alt="" height="10" width="10" /></td></tr><tr><td><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" > “The G20 advanced and developing countries will hold an emergency meeting on the global financial crisis in Washington on November 15, the White House said Wednesday.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >High on the agenda will be their respective steps to cope with the financial crisis, oversight of the financial sector and related reforms, as well as adverse effects of the crisis on the emerging and developing countries, according to White House Press Secretary Dana Perino. …” [<u>Jiji Press (Japan)/Factiva</u>]</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >AFP</span></u> <span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >adds that “… ‘<span style="">The leaders will review progress being made to address the current financial crisis, advance a common understanding of its causes and in order to avoid a repetition, agree on a common set of principles for reform of the regulatory and institutional regimes for the world's financial sectors,’ she said. …” [<u>Agence France Presse/Factiva</u>]</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >FT</span></u> <span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >notes that “…The <span style="">G20</span> members include some of the countries most affected by the crisis in the developed world as well as emerging markets such as Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. …” [<u>The Financial Times (UK)/Factiva</u>]</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0pt;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >WP</span></u> <span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;" >writes that President “…Bush has agreed to host the meeting as the start of a series of ambitious summits aimed at overhauling the regulatory framework for global finance first put in place more than six decades ago at a similar summit at Bretton Woods, N.H. The gathering will include leaders of the G20, an organization of major industrialized and developing nations, as well as central bankers and international finance officials. …” [<u>The Washington Post/Factiva</u>]</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-51380207613278909622008-10-13T17:37:00.000+01:002008-10-13T17:45:20.576+01:00'Nobel' StiglitzStiglitz defende solução comum para a crise na Europa<br />Há 1 dia<br />PARIS (AFP) — O Prêmio Nobel de Economia de 2001, o americano Joseph Stiglitz, considerou necessária uma solução comum para todos os países da Europa e a autorização imediata de um déficit público superior a 3% do PIB para enfrentar a crise financeira.<br />"Para resolver a crise na Europa, serão necessárias soluções européias", afirmou Stiglitz em entrevista publicada neste sábado pelo jornal francês "Le Monde".<br />"Propor uma garantia de depósito em um país e não em outro, por exemplo, só distorce a concorrência entre os bancos: é tão fácil mudar de estabelecimento dentro da união", destacou o economista.<br />Para Stiglitz, a Europa tem que autorizar "imediatamente" um déficit público superior a 3% do PIB", o limite fixado pelo Tratado de Maastricht.<br />"O estatuto do Banco Central Europeu, que está centrado na inflação e não no crescimento, também é um problema", criticou.<br />Sobre a desconfiança entre os bancos, o economista destacou que "os banqueiros se comportaram muito mal e que é preciso revisar toda a regulação do sistema".<br />"Há um furo no barco e a urgência é repará-lo, como disse Ben Bernanke", presidente do Federal Reserve americano, afirmou Stiglitz.<br />"Mas também é preciso mudar o capitão. O barco está sendo conduzido por um bêbado, que está nos levando direto contra as rochas", acrescentou.<br />Segundo Stiglitz, a crise financeira atual pode ser mais comparada à da Indonésia em 1997-1998 do que à de 1929. "Há dez anos, esta crise financeira se transformou em grande depressão", lembrou.<br />"Os remédios usados até agora só resolvem uma parte do problema". declarou, criticando em particular o plano do secretário do Tesouro, Henry Paulson.<br />Stiglitz julgou que o Estado americano, comprando os produtos tóxicos dos bancos, "transformará as perdas antecipadas em perdas reais".<br />"O plano consiste em fazer uma transfusão sanguínea em um doente que sofre de uma hemorragia interna", comparou.<br />Para ele, o plano de resgate britânico, que consiste em injetar liquidez nos bancos, é a "melhor opção".Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-89858704974025052162008-10-13T17:25:00.002+01:002008-10-13T17:27:55.220+01:00'Golden' BrownO Reino Unido salvou-nos. Esta é a verdade do momento. Agora é connosco, a luta para mudar as coisas de forma a evitar assaltos destes ao nosso dinheiro.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/12/gordonbrown-economy">http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/12/gordonbrown-economy</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-59429126518848125982008-10-13T17:21:00.003+01:002008-10-13T17:25:04.232+01:00'Golden' BrownOs 5 pontos de Gordon Brown<br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/13/gordonbrown-economy">http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/13/gordonbrown-economy</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-59853157908345273852008-10-09T10:06:00.002+01:002008-10-09T10:08:39.294+01:00Presidente do BM marca o ritmo para o futuroO sistema multilateral precisa de uma reformulação profunda, avisa Zoellick<br />A crise financeira global está a arrastar muitos países em desenvolvimento<br /><br />Divulgação de Notícias Nº2007/105/EXC<br /><br />WASHINGTON, 6 de Outubro de 2008 – O modo como o mundo tenta resolver os problemas económicos tem de ser repensado, face à actual crise global, incluindo a transformação do Grupo dos Sete num Grupo Dirigente que atribua poderes aos estados económicos em ascensão, afirmou o Presidente do Banco Mundial, Robert B. Zoellick.<br />Referindo-se às próximas eleições norte-americanas, Zoellick disse que o novo presidente não poderá limitar-se a tentar “encontrar a estabilização financeira” mas terá de solucionar “as repercussões económicas subsequentes”. Quem quer que seja eleito terá de trabalhar com os outros na modernização do sistema multilateral pois é necessário que haja uma maior responsabilidade partilhada para a solidez e funcionamento eficaz da economia global de hoje em dia.<br />“O G-7 não funciona. Precisamos de um grupo melhor para um tempo diferente”, afirmou Zoellick num discurso no Peterson Institute for International Economics em Washington D.C. “Com vista à cooperação financeira e cooperação, teremos de considerar um novo Grupo Dirigente que inclua o Brasil, China, Índia, México, Rússia, Arábia Saudita, África do Sul e o actual G-7.”<br />Num discurso que antecede as próximas Reuniões Anuais do Grupo Banco Mundial, Zoellick referiu que o Grupo Dirigente terá de ser mais do que uma mera substituição do G-7 por um G-14 com um número fixo, pois tal seria utilizar métodos do velho mundo para reconstruir o novo. O Grupo Dirigente terá de evoluir para se adaptar às circunstâncias em mutação, incluindo novas potências emergentes, servindo, ao mesmo tempo, de rede para uma interacção frequente. “Precisamos de um Facebook para uma diplomacia económica multilateral”, afirmou Zoellick.<br />Alertando para os efeitos da crise financeira, Zoellick disse: “Os acontecimentos de Setembro poderiam ser um ponto de viragem para muitos países em desenvolvimento. Uma quebra nas exportações, bem como nas entradas de capital, irá desencadear a queda dos investimentos. A desaceleração do crescimento e a deterioração das condições financeiras, combinadas com a restrição monetária, irão produzir falências de empresas e, possivelmente, emergências bancárias. Alguns países serão arrastados para crises da balança de pagamentos. Como sempre acontece, os mais pobres são os mais indefesos”.<br />O antigo diplomata americano, negociador de regras do comércio e executivo financeiro, afirmou que o multilateralismo económico precisava de ser redefinido para além do seu centro tradicional de atenção nas finanças e no comércio. Energia, mudanças climáticas e estabilização de estados frágeis e em fase de pós conflito eram questões económicas e não apenas parte do diálogo global sobre segurança e o ambiente.<br />Zoellick declarou que o Novo Multilateralismo tem de dar valor igual ao desenvolvimento e às finanças internacionais, ou então o mundo permanecerá um lugar instável. Mas o sistema de ajuda não estava a funcionar suficientemente bem e precisava de se movimentar mais rápida e eficazmente para poder ajudar os mais vulneráveis quando a crise se abate. O Grupo Banco Mundial também precisa de reforma. Zoellick anunciou a criação de uma Comissão de Alto Nível sob a liderança do antigo Presidente do México Ernesto Zedillo que tem por missão considerar a modernização da governação do Grupo Banco Mundial.<br />Voltando às conversações multilaterais sobre o comércio, Zoellick disse que a ronda de Doha estava “estagnada” e, portanto, os países deviam considerar a facilitação do comércio como uma outra forma de cortar os custos do comércio. “Há oportunidades para reduzir os custos do comércio numa dimensão muito maior do que a que resulta da imposição de tarifas e outras barreiras comerciais”, afirmou.<br />Descrevendo os mercados mundiais da energia como “um caos”, Zoellick apelou a uma “negociação global” entre produtores e consumidores de energia. Os dois lados podiam participar em planos para expandir o abastecimento, melhorar a eficiência e reduzir a procura, prestar assistência aos pobres em matéria de energia e analisar o modo como estas políticas estão relacionadas com as políticas de produção de carbono e de alterações climáticas<br />“Podia haver um interesse comum em gerir um leque de preços que concilie os interesses ao mesmo tempo que estabelece a transição para estratégias destinadas a baixar as emissões de carbono, um portfolio mais amplo de fontes de energia e uma maior segurança internacional” afirmou Zoellick.<br />Zoellick mencionou que o Grupo Banco Mundial está a elaborar, com vários dadores, uma iniciativa de Energia para os Pobres para ajudar os países mais necessitados a atender as necessidades energéticas de uma forma eficiente e sustentável.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-53733686432084497002008-10-09T10:03:00.000+01:002008-10-09T10:04:28.272+01:00Crise da DemocraciaOur leaders are impotent to tame the beast: this crisis is one of democracyPoliticians' limitations have been laid bare during these tumultuous weeks. If ever they can assert strength, it is now<br /><br />Jonathan FreedlandWednesday October 8 2008The Guardian<br /><br />Is it time to stash the tinned soup and bottled water in the cellar, along with a shortwave radio and a dagger, just in case? Just where, exactly, is this financial crisis going to end - with the collapse of the entire banking system, plunging London into a Mad Max purgatory of burnt-out cars and howling dogs, as survivors of the disaster stab each other for a last hunk of bread?<br />You won't hear Robert Peston predicting that on the Today programme. But when the air is filled with talk of meltdowns and crashes, when 40% is wiped off the value of two of Britain's largest banking groups in a single day, as it was yesterday, you find yourself wondering. Not least because no one can offer certain reassurance of anything. In the past few weeks, actions once considered unimaginable have happened. There was a time when to suggest that a British government would nationalise not one but two high-street banks would have had you certified as a hopeless leftist fantasist. Now public ownership has become the norm, with the City itself and a former Conservative chancellor demanding more of it and fast.<br />"Everyone knows they're going to have to do it," Ken Clarke said yesterday of the proposed recapitalisation plan, expected to be part of the government package announced this morning and which would see the taxpayer buy a stake in the Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds TSB: "Get on with it."<br />Now nothing seems impossible. Those rapidly emptying out their accounts are doing so because they can imagine the banks crashing to the ground, taking their life-savings with them. I spoke with one financial adviser whose phone has grown hot with clients wondering whether they should move their money to Ireland. "But what if the Irish banks collapse?" he tells them. "Would Ireland really have enough money to reimburse all those depositors?" Once it seemed ridiculous to suggest a national banking system going bust. Now it's possible that an entire country could go bankrupt: look at Iceland, forced yesterday to phone Moscow begging for a loan. It's enough to make you want to shove your cash in a piggy bank, hide it under the mattress - then pull the duvet over your head and hope it all goes away.<br />The instinctive response to such a situation - not that anyone under 80 has lived through anything comparable - is to look for someone to fix it. And that someone means the government.<br />And yet, up till last night at least, the politicians had been floundering. Alistair Darling addressed the House of Commons on Monday in order to calm the markets and reassure the nation. Yet, as yesterday's Guardian front-page graphic cruelly illustrated, his words had precisely the opposite effect. In the 11 minutes it took him to promise that he would do "whatever it takes" to keep the financial ship afloat, the markets plunged. The day saw the biggest loss on the FTSE 100 since 1987.<br />Ah, say the experts, but that was only because Darling had failed to say what the money men needed to hear. He came up with no specifics and, what's more is deemed weak, still in Gordon Brown's shadow and too uninspiring a communicator to persuade the neurotic men of the markets of anything.<br />But there is a flaw in this conventional wisdom. Look at what happened across the Atlantic. There Hank Paulson, admired as a muscular treasury secretary, fully the master of his brief, took the most decisive action possible. No half-measures, but a $700bn bail-out aimed at mopping up the bad debts of every lender in the land. This was not the pale, pink socialism of Northern Rock or Bradford & Bingley: this was red-blooded Bolshevism, seizing the commanding heights of the financial system. You gotta love the Americans: if they do something, they do it big.<br />Sure, it fell at the first hurdle, defeated in the House of Representatives, but it passed eventually. And yet, did it pacify the markets? Did it persuade them that this problem was at last under control, thereby replenishing the supply of the only commodity that has actually run out during this crisis - given that there is no sudden shortage of oil or food - namely, confidence? It did not. The Dow Jones responded to the passage of the US rescue plan not by sighing with relief and declaring the trouble nearly over, but by shrugging its shoulders - and falling. That is a grim warning to Brown and Darling: whatever drastic action comes this morning might not end the turmoil.<br />It's as if nothing the politicians can do is good enough. If they plug one hole in the dyke, water springs out of another. Guarantees are offered to savers in one bank or even in one country, immediately spooking those who aren't similarly covered. Even if the government in Britain did move to guarantee all bank savings, might not the panic simply move to the building societies? And once they had been dealt with at enormous cost, what's to say the insurance companies would not be next to feel the contagion of collapsed confidence?<br />The result is that politicians seem dwarfed by the scale of the current crisis, either unable to act decisively at all - witness the statement of European finance ministers yesterday, agreeing on not much more than a "coordinated framework" for consideration of the problem - or to act decisively enough.<br />It's tempting to think this is a function of the quality of our leaders. If only an FDR was around, we say to ourselves, he would surely know what to do just as he knew how to steer America through the Great Depression. And yet that might be unfair on the current generation of politicians.<br />The reality is that in the balance of politics and the market, the scales tipped towards the moneymen a long time ago. The acclaimed historian of the postwar period, David Kynaston, describes as a "fundamental revolution" the breakdown of the old Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, ending the fixed exchange rates that had held since 1945. Once those rates could float, we entered the era of "footloose markets": finance could go anywhere and national governments could only look on helplessly. "The politicians had their confidence battered," says Kynaston.<br />In Britain, Black Wednesday in 1992 added to the politicians' timidity. New Labour, then in embryo, watched as the Major government tried and failed to control financial events, pouring money into the system, raising interest rates twice in one day - and all to no avail. Gordon Brown learned the lesson all too well: there were limits to what politicians can do.<br />Now that impotence is on clear display and it is spreading alarm around the world. For people desperately want someone to get a grip. The left has been warning for years that corporations now enjoy more power than nation states, but never has it been clearer than it is now. The realisation is dawning that this is not just a financial or economic crisis, but a democratic crisis - the people and their representatives have little or no control over what affects them directly.<br />The solution is surely for governments to realise that if they are weak, the high priests of high finance are even weaker. The politicians should provide the help the banks need, but with the tightest of strings attached, regulating finance so closely that it can never again gorge itself the way it has these past few years.<br />Democracy has to assert itself once more - and tame this beast.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-50211690960879323772008-10-06T17:40:00.000+01:002008-10-06T17:41:43.394+01:00Cidadãos diplomatasRACINE, Wis., Oct 06, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- To dramatically improve international relations throughout the world, the U.S. Center for Citizen Diplomacy (U.S. Center) announced today a National Presidents' Initiative for Citizen Diplomacy. The National Presidents' Initiative was launched as a result of discussions by 40 U.S. leaders, associated with more than 90 organizations in international affairs, who attended a Leadership Forum on Citizen Diplomacy. A National Presidents' Initiative Steering Committee plans to meet with members of the U.S. Center's Board, forum participants, nationally recognized leaders in foreign affairs, members of Congress, members of the new administration's transition team on foreign policy, and with the president-elect in early December to discuss this strategic plan and its implementation. The Leadership Forum, co-sponsored by the Johnson Foundation, convened October 1-3, 2008, at the Wingspread Conference Center in Racine, Wisconsin.<br />"Polls and studies document that anti-American sentiment around the globe is dangerously high, growing to unprecedented levels. In an era of increasing interdependence, more and more people develop their most lasting impressions from face-to-face, personal encounters with people visiting the U.S. or when Americans travel abroad," said Former Ambassador Mark Johnson, V.P. of the U.S. Center's Board of Directors and facilitator at the Leadership Forum. "Restoring America's global image demands the active engagement of American citizens in a dramatic expansion of citizen diplomacy. Implementation of the National Presidents' Initiative, increasing our capacity to reach out, will be a powerful force in defining the U.S. to the rest of the world."<br />The National Presidents' Initiative will be a "Call to Action" to energize and motivate Americans to become citizen diplomats, dramatically increasing the number of Americans, of all ages, who are actively engaged globally to strengthen America's international relationships. The strategic plan includes the expansion of existing citizen diplomacy efforts and identifies bold new, innovative opportunities to engage all Americans globally through education, business, volunteer service, community-based initiatives, professional exchange, arts & humanities programs, sports, development assistance or international travel.<br />Harriet Fulbright, President of the J. William & Harriet Fulbright Center and U.S. Center Board member said, "President Dwight D. Eisenhower recognized the importance of citizen diplomacy more than 50 years ago when he convened the People to People Conference in 1956. Today, we must redefine citizenship for the 21st century. All Americans can be a driving force in improving international relations, working across cultures to ensure global political and economic stability."<br />The U.S. Center, based in Des Moines, Iowa, is a nonpartisan, non-profit organization established in 2006 to promote opportunity for all Americans to become citizen diplomats of the highest order, for their communities and for their country. To advance its mission, the U.S. Center invited leaders with extensive backgrounds in all facets of international engagement, in both public and private sectors, business, education and non-profit international organizations to the Leadership Forum.<br />For more information on the U.S. Center for Citizen Diplomacy, visit <a class="lk001" href="http://www.uscenterforcitizendiplomacy.org/" target="_blank">http://www.uscenterforcitizendiplomacy.org</a>. Contact: Marisol Molstre<br />Phone: 515-282-7145<br />m.molstre@essmanassociates.com<br />Denise Essman<br />Phone: 515-282-7145<br />d.essman@essmanassociates.com<br />SOURCE U.S. Center for Citizen DiplomacyLe Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-63963430375596305492008-10-06T17:35:00.001+01:002008-10-06T17:35:57.825+01:00EUA e Rússia, que futuro?<a href="http://www.eurasianhome.org/xml/t/expert.xml?lang=en&nic=expert&pid=1754&qmonth=0&qyear=0">http://www.eurasianhome.org/xml/t/expert.xml?lang=en&nic=expert&pid=1754&qmonth=0&qyear=0</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-19602954947762223752008-10-06T02:02:00.001+01:002008-10-06T02:06:30.501+01:00Chavez d' OuroNo 'Jornal Notícias' de 5 Outubro<br />O Presidente venezuelano, Hugo Chávez afirmou, este domingo, que o seu país criará um "sistema financeiro próprio" em conjunto com "países aliados" como o Irão, Rússia, Bielorússia e China, e o apoio do líder cubano Fidel Castro.<br />Esta dita "arquitectura financeira" venezuelana permitiu ao país resguardar-se da crise financeira mundial, assegurou Chávez, durante uma visita a duas plataformas petroquímicas em construção no Estado de Carabobo.<br />"Erguemos o nosso próprio sistema de finanças interno, externo e mundial", através da promoção de sociedades económicas com os citados "países aliados", declarou Chávez, afirmando-se defensor do "socialismo do século XXI".<br />O líder venezuelano referiu que a aliança com aqueles estados baseia-se na constituição de fundos milionários e bancos bi-nacionais, que nada têm a ver com instituições financeiras internacionais, e que dotam com recursos projectos e empresas bi-nacionais em áreas "estratégicas" como energia, alimentação e indústria.<br />"Temos uma arquitectura financeira mundial estável. O nosso capital provém da recuperação da venda do petróleo, que era roubada pelos governos anteriores", declarou Chávez.<br />O governante citou como exemplo desta "arquitectura financeira" o fundo bi-nacional que a Venezuela tem com a China, constituído o ano passado com um capital de 6.000 milhões de dólares e que será elevado até aos 12.000 milhões, assinado por Caracas e Pequim durante a visita do Chefe de Estado venezuelano à China, há duas semanas.<br />Também, a próxima criação de um banco bi-nacional entre a Venezuela e o Irão, que "quiçá chamemos 'Caixa de Valores Chávez-Ahmadinejad", disse entre risos, o Presidente Chávez.Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-65893179258903269072008-10-02T23:47:00.002+01:002008-10-02T23:50:05.235+01:00Joseph Stiglitz pela Democracia<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/01/useconomy.congress">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/01/useconomy.congress</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-24401289176723121642008-10-02T23:43:00.000+01:002008-10-02T23:44:14.631+01:00Timothy Garton Ash fala sobre a Crise<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/02/congress.useconomy">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/02/congress.useconomy</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-83113724646400088992008-09-29T02:15:00.003+01:002008-09-29T17:43:26.504+01:00Ponto de SituaçãoAo fim destes 5 dias as coisas continuam quase na mesma por cá, mas no mundo...<br />A economia do éter a materializar-se em grandes falências. Os EUA criaram o problema e também estão a arranjar a solução. Mas a ganância não foi só dos americanos pelo que não devem ser os únicos a pagar a crise.<br />As guerras nacionais recomeçam com os ricos e pobres revoltados. América do Sul dá o mote.<br />A China chora no leite derramado e volta à era pré-Olímpicos.<br />Só Rússia e Brasil podem fazer algum contrabalanço aos EUA. Não com guerra.<br />A Rússia agarrou a Europa pelos tubos, de gás e petróleo, e a potência Brasil já está aí a dar cartas.<br />A Europa ainda não tem músculo militar para impor as suas ideias em Política externa. Mais uma vez, se houvesse chatice na Europa só os EUA nos poderiam valer. Esta ideia de que não haverá guerra através de 'soft-power' é pouco sustentável num mundo que teima equilibrar-se pela força das armas.<br />O petróleo continuará nos 100 dólares até nos recuperarmos da queda. Depois, como tudo o que tem procura e é escasso, vai subir outra vez. Aí só mesmo o nuclear, o solar etc., nos valerão.<br />Mudanças climáticas com que ainda não sonhamos irão dar novo aspecto à Terra. Só depois se perceberá o que acontece à água.<br />O importante das nossas vidas vai passar por satélites, com as nanotecnologias e a engenharia genética a marcarem lugar preponderante na determinação da qualidade de vida.<br />Desigualdades haverá sempre, mas hoje podemos fazer muito mais e melhor do que se fazia há um século. Só que ainda não estamos a viver num mundo melhorLe Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-5436752496840111872008-09-23T01:11:00.000+01:002008-09-23T01:13:17.764+01:00O que Americanos pensam sobre o mundoAssim Obama ganha mesmo.<br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/americans-support-major-changes-us/story.aspx?guid=%7BD011C250-E33B-4F77-B688-F05DF5DD22E3%7D&dist=hppr">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/americans-support-major-changes-us/story.aspx?guid=%7BD011C250-E33B-4F77-B688-F05DF5DD22E3%7D&dist=hppr</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-91200688525038682882008-09-23T00:54:00.002+01:002008-09-23T00:59:45.934+01:00Sumário analítico fabuloso da ForbesLos Estados Unidos<br />We're On Top<br />Tunku Varadarajan 09.22.08, 12:00 AM ET<br /><br />Starting today, the United Nations' headquarters in New York turns into a caravanserai for the world's presidents, prime ministers and panjandrums. They're all gathered to debate--quaint word, that--the globe's several disgruntlements. The General Assembly of the U.N. was conceived as the Great Equalizer, the forum in which all states big and small would have but one vote each. This "vote" was a political inversion of "veto," the device--so useful when we wield it, so infuriating when the Chinese or Russians do--that makes the U.N.'s Security Council the Great Un-equalizer. This one-size-fits-all vote was a recipe, of course, for the General Assembly's rapid redundancy--and for its becoming little better than a venue for off-off-off-Broadway theater. The world is unequal: always has been, always will be. And in order to understand the hierarchy of the world as it is, I offer a back-of-the-envelope taxonomy that should help us stack countries from top to bottom.<br />Alpha: At the top is America, dubbed memorably (and accurately) an "hyperpuissance" by Hubert Vedrine, a former foreign minister of France. This phrase--hyperpower--is France's only indisputably useful contribution to international relations in well over a decade. (Josef Joffe's locution, "Uber-power," adds nothing to the conversation, being merely German translation masquerading as fresh insight.) America, in spite of the plummeting of its stock under President Bush, is Alpha without equal; and I mean this observationally, not as triumphal judgment. Superpowers: Who's next? This is a small category, confined to those who wield a veto in the U.N.'s Security Council, but who lack the political heft to assemble armed international coalitions in the absence of a U.N. imprimatur. These would be Britain, China, France and Russia, and each has the ability to manage a "sphere," should it so choose, independent of American oversight--and contrary to American interests. Britain has, effectively, opted out of exercising this choice, of which Russia and China are emphatic exercisers; France cannot seem to make up its mind. Always-Consequential States: These differ from the previous category essentially in their lack of a U.N. veto, as well as in their inability to use force internationally without clearing it first--at some level--with Washington. These states are Germany, Japan and India. Although the economies of Germany and Japan are drivers of the international economy on a par with some of the countries higher up in the hierarchy, their ability to project armed force beyond their borders is virtually nonexistent. India is of growing strategic and military stature, but its force-projection is hampered by an economy that is still Not Quite There--and by a political self-image that makes it a more diffident international actor than it needs to be. All of these states aspire to a U.N. veto--and few other states regard this aspiration as frivolous.<br />Not-Inconsequential States: These states are always taken into account seriously--and not merely ritually--by other states, as well as by international institutions. Not-inconsequential states include Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Spain, <a style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-WEIGHT: 400; FONT-SIZE: x-small; CURSOR: pointer; COLOR: #003399; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px dotted; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/09/12/ap5418624.html?partner=alerts" rel="nofollow" _old_href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Ffeeds%2Fap%2F2008%2F09%2F12%2Fap5418624.html%3Fpartner%3Dalerts">South Africa</a>, <a style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-WEIGHT: 400; FONT-SIZE: x-small; CURSOR: pointer; COLOR: #003399; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px dotted; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/09/16/2008-09-16T213957Z_01_LG628752_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-POLICYMAKERS-WRAPUP-8.html?partner=lingospot" rel="nofollow" _old_href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Freuters%2Ffeeds%2Freuters%2F2008%2F09%2F16%2F2008-09-16T213957Z_01_LG628752_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-POLICYMAKERS-WRAPUP-8.html%3Fpartner%3Dlingospot">South Korea</a>, Sweden and Turkey. This list is not exhaustive, and the boundary between this and the next category is often blurred by specific events and interests. (A subset within this category might be that of the Never-Inconsequential State, with a membership of one: Israel. Its ability to act in forcible ways that have major international consequences goes well beyond that of the other states in this category, none of which enjoys the unconditional support of the United States the way Israel does.)<br />Inconsequential, but Reputable: These are states that trouble no one, and seldom if ever cause deliberate disruption to the flow of international relations. Their conduct, on the whole, makes them reputable; their inability to influence international currents except in coalition with others makes them independently largely inconsequential. Examples include such states as Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Jordan, Morocco, <a style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-WEIGHT: 400; FONT-SIZE: x-small; CURSOR: pointer; COLOR: #003399; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px dotted; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/09/08/afx5397859.html?partner=lingospot" rel="nofollow" _old_href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fafxnewslimited%2Ffeeds%2Fafx%2F2008%2F09%2F08%2Fafx5397859.html%3Fpartner%3Dlingospot">New Zealand</a>, Norway, the Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Switzerland and Thailand.<br />Disreputable, but Not Inconsequential: A state is often regarded only as highly as one regards the regime running it. By this token, disreputability is a fluid category: A state so classified today might find itself elevated to "Reputable" status after a change of regime. The states in this category are "not inconsequential" by virtue of their ability to make mischief--often potentially serious mischief--beyond their own borders; and so the world ignores them at its peril. These states are, at present, Iran, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan and Venezuela.<br />Disreputable and Inconsequential: This is a sad category--and sad, in the main, for the citizens of the states in question: Myanmar, Cuba and Zimbabwe. Myanmar is enslaved by unyielding generals who will not hand over power to an elected stateswoman. After its adventurist heyday, Cuba is now a pathetic, down-at-heel, repressive island-prison. And Zimbabwe is a beastly place, where hunger-struck people are presided over by a benighted megalomaniac. None of this, however, affects anyone else, except emotionally--which is why the tyrants in all three places can go, blithely, about their business ... including business at the <a style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-WEIGHT: 400; FONT-SIZE: x-small; CURSOR: pointer; COLOR: #003399; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px dotted; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.forbes.com/markets/2006/09/19/yahoo-prices-markets-markets-cx_ab_0919video3.html?partner=lingospot" rel="nofollow" _old_href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fmarkets%2F2006%2F09%2F19%2Fyahoo-prices-markets-markets-cx_ab_0919video3.html%3Fpartner%3Dlingospot">U.N. General Assembly</a>.<br />Tunku Varadarajan, a professor at NYU's Stern Business School and a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, is opinions editor at Forbes.com, where he writes a weekly columnLe Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-26393629206692602792008-09-22T23:26:00.001+01:002008-09-22T23:28:33.482+01:00Brasil e CriseO Brasil vê a crise financeira como ela é: uma crise da ganância e soberba de quem conduziu o sistema capitalista a uma fronteira suicida.<br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=atkiLry6pSqA&refer=latin_america">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=atkiLry6pSqA&refer=latin_america</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-72093772563149130262008-09-19T12:11:00.002+01:002008-09-19T12:14:51.586+01:00RI na Rússia19/09/2008 <a href="http://mnweekly.ru/trend/mn37_2008/">Moscow News №37 2008</a><br />Valdai Club: a diplomatic marathon<br /><a onclick="popup('/politics/20080919/55347518-print.html','printversion','menubar=1,toolbar=1,resizable=0,location=0,status=0,scrollbars=1','561','600'); return false;" href="http://mnweekly.ru/politics/20080919/55347518-print.html">> print version</a><br />We are currently witnessing the opening moves in a large-scale political game aimed at building a new system of relations between Russia, the U.S. and EU. This is the conclusion to be drawn from the recent meetings of the Valdai Discussion Club in Rostov-on-Don, Sochi and Moscow.<br />This year's meetings of Valdai members, an annual conference bringing together experts in international relations from Russia and around the world, in fact marked the starting point of the new game. This was purely by chance, as Georgia's attack on Tskhinvali, South Ossetia took place exactly one month before the planned annual meeting of the club.<br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/" target="_blank">LATEST NEWS</a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116962012.html" target="_blank">U.S. plays down Russia's planned Arctic marking </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116962012.html" target="_blank">14:42 19/09/2008 The U.S. State Department said on Friday that if Russia passes a new law defining its Arctic boundaries, this will have purely domestic consequences and no international legal significance. </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116957597.html" target="_blank">Gorbachev cautions against willingness to take up arms</a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116957597.html" target="_blank">13:18 19/09/2008 Mikhail Gorbachev has criticized the readiness of political leaders to resort to armed conflict to resolve their problems in a Liberty Medal acceptance speech in the U.S. </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116957105.html" target="_blank">North Korea announces preparations to re-launch nuclear reactor </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20080919/116957105.html" target="_blank">13:05 19/09/2008 A senior North Korean diplomat told reporters on Friday that preparations are underway to re-start the country's nuclear reactor, due to failure by the U.S. to fulfill its side of a denuclearization deal. </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080919/116955401.html" target="_blank">Russian Navy to adopt new Bulava ballistic missile in 2009</a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080919/116955401.html" target="_blank">12:27 19/09/2008 Russia will adopt new Bulava-M submarine-based ballistic missiles for service with the Navy and commission the first Borey-class strategic nuclear submarine in 2009, a senior Navy official said on Friday. </a><br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/" target="_blank">more news</a><br />window.google_render_ad();<br />But even if it were not for this coincidence, the big game would have still begun where it did - at a major meeting of experts. What I mean by ‘experts' here is not people employed by various research centers; I mean people who advise their governments. Expert consultations are followed by confidential negotiations, which are in turn followed by open talks - this is an established procedure.<br />The Valdai Club is known to the international community mainly thanks to its traditional last day meetings with Vladimir Putin, who first commenced the event five years ago. This year, members had an opportunity to wine and dine with Dmitry Medvedev, and other Russian leaders. Although these meetings are held behind closed doors, much of what is said becomes public knowledge in a few days because international journalists are among the experts invited.<br />But the most important part of the club's work is the Valdai Conference, which usually takes place over two days. At this year's conference in Rostov-on-Don, a lot of interesting things came up pertaining to the current international crisis.<br />It is worth mentioning here that the club's meetings feature little propaganda and few impassioned statements. They rarely engage in heated argument; what they do is rather share their assessments, and sometimes send signals that are part of some pre-diplomatic work. Much diplomacy now will focus on the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia.<br />People on all sides were hurt by this 5-day war, including Georgia, the US, the EU and Russia. This fact only aggravates the situation.<br />Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Robert Blackwill, who is now deputy national security adviser, said it looked like Western and Russian leaders woke up every morning with new ideas of how to spoil their relations still further. He said it is necessary to calm down. Back in the Soviet times there were at least no personal insults between leaders, but now the EU, U.S. and Russia communicate only through press conferences.<br />Georgia is not the essential reason for this conflict. In fact, it was the sudden manifestation of problems that had been accumulating since 1991. There was a feeling at some points in the conference that it was really focused on Europe's annoyance with America over Georgia, Russia and much more.<br />Here are some opinions voiced at the conference.<br />- There are actually two crises, a healthy one, and an unhealthy one. The bad one is unfolding between Russia and Europe as a whole, the good one, between Europe and the United States. The war in Georgia was the manifestation of a conflict between Europe and the United States over NATO expansion, which America has tried to impose on Europe. Europe needs new relations with the U.S. above all, and indirectly, with Russia. (Jonathan Steele, The Guardian, Great Britain)<br />- We are now paying for 15 years of ignoring Russia. We don't have the nerve to oppose the U.S. within NATO, or over Kosovo. (Thierry de Montbrial, head of the French Institute of International Relations)<br />- The way the European mass media covered the conflict in Georgia was not the first case of encouraging confrontation. The Americans destroyed the free press at the beginning of the war in Iraq. The media participated in selling the lies to the American public with catastrophic results. (Professor Anatole Lieven, King's College, London)<br />- The entire scheme of partnership with Russia is ineffective. Yet, we need one. What should it be like? (James Sherr, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London)<br />- The U.S. and European strategy in the Middle East and Central Asia includes three fights - one around Afghanistan and Pakistan, one in the Caucasus and one in Central Asia. In two cases out of three the U.S. could be partners with Russia. All the three strategies are incompatible. It was wrong to quarrel with two of the region's countries, Russia and Iran, which used to fight the Taliban. (Anatole Lieven, King's College)<br />They have not produced too many answers to the vital questions of what to do and how to do it. One was that the time for mutual threats has passed, and that it is now time for mutual concessions and serious consultations.<br />More excerpts from presentations at the conference confirm this idea:<br />- Twenty-seven countries have supported one aggressor killing 2,000 civilians. Moscow did not take offence, but it drew some conclusions: Our attempt at integration with the West is over now. We are a separate part of the world, and the West is more of a problem than a help to us. Ukraine is becoming a priority. Its accession to NATO is a direct threat to Russia. We will do anything to prevent it. (Vyacheslav Nikonov, executive director of the Russian World foundation.)<br />- The US admitted that Georgia was wrong to attack South Ossetia; it isn't the moment for the US to quarrel with Russia. We have already paid for the conflict, as Russia slapped a ban on importing poultry from the U.S. in retaliation for the uranium agreement revoked in Congress. But if Russia begins ousting the US from Central Asia, tensions will grow. There is also the issue of weapons supplies to Syria and Iran.<br />So, we are back to the key problems in Russia's relations with the West, which preferred to ignore Russia for a long time. Did we really need a war to push matters forward?<br />In any case, the preparations for building new relations will go on, quietly and slowly, but surely. The US is busy with its run-up to the next presidential elections, where candidates need to look strong. Time will tell what will happen next. But in any case, the Valdai Club conference is leading the current diplomatic marathon. <br />By Dmitry KosyrevLe Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5039809999266124498.post-81672489828220625442008-09-19T12:11:00.001+01:002008-09-19T12:12:57.569+01:00Política sem batônComo é vista a crise económica nos EUA.<br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/no_more_lipstick_with_financia.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/no_more_lipstick_with_financia.html</a>Le Crihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09781414073254731853noreply@blogger.com0